The Fearful Unfinished Analysis

India: the way forward or backward

India>>>Pakistan>>>Afghanistan

India>>>The perception of democracy

Bharat to India, Democracy to dictatorship

The above written were the titles which I thought should be the title , but then changed it because I was not sure whether it will communicate what exactly I intend to say.

For all those who know me or my writing including my Pen friends know very well that, I am optimist writer for sure I am not one of the critic, but then I think after reading this blog few of you will definitely change your perception, and for sure today I am not going to be cool on any of my analysis.

If someone asks you a question, " Is India moving towards Dictatorship", the first answer which will come in Mind is " bull shit, what the hell", I would have reacted the same way few days back.

I really wanted to take a  micro level look at what all going in India, but then again I am not sure about communication so the best way is to keep the analysis part to the reader and just put forth the headings of the news in last 3 months in India , rest up to you 

1.Compared to our volatile neighbourhood, India is a matured and vibrant democracy. All its pillars have so far performed the designated role well. There have been minor glitches here and there which at times involve the Armed Forces as well.

2.Opportunity to address and resolve the entire gamut of Armed Forces- Government relationship. The opportunity should be grabbed with both hands by the civilian administration without making it a prestige issue. After all it is the question of the nation’s prestige first. Rest everything is secondary.

3.Age row: Former Army chief backs Gen V K Singh

4.RSS backs Army Chief on age row

5.ATS

The Union Home Ministry today acknowledged there was a lack of coordination between Delhi Police and Maharashtra ATS in the probe into last year's serial blasts in Mumbai but downplayed the rift between them. Union Home Secretary R K Singh at the same time said he was "very happy" that the Maharashtra Anti Terrorism Squad (ATS) had cracked the 13/7 blast case. He also said there is a need for a standard operating procedure for inter-state anti-terror operations

6.The Mumbai ATS' claims to have solved the 13th July serial blast cases have been received with some consternation by Delhi police. Sources in Delhi Police say that Nauqee Ahmed, arrested by Maharashtra ATS actually worked as informer for the Delhi Police's Special Cell. In fact, the men arrested by the Mumbai ATS actually provided information in identifying the men who planted the explosives. In fact, they were in Mumbai to help with the investigations. Delhi Police sources think, while the bombers are still on the loose, the informants have been arrested

7.13/7 blasts: How police rivalry let mastermind slip away - Rediff.com ...

8.Govt behind morale loss of security forces: BJP ET

9. 8 of 16 former Chief Justice of India corrupt: Former Law minister ...

10.“Indian DEMOCRACY is in DANGER; when 867 Judges, who have NEVER Learned
to OBEY the LAW Are given THE RIGHT to COMMAND”

11.indiancorruptjudges.com/

12.Is corrupt judiciary the new reality of.India? - Contribute - MSNIndia

13.Anna's Jan Lokpal- A Threat to Democracy

14.'Only a dictatorship can have such a law' | Hard News

15.The danger of strong Lokpal

16.Jan Lokpal or Dictator

17.Jharkhand: 13 policemen including OC killed in Naxal attack

18.Manipur : the angry state,

19.Democracy the joke in Manipur.

20The parallel government in States of India.

21.Finance Ministry Thinks RBI is a dictator

22. BSF jawans took money for Smuggling of arms from Pakistan 

My dairy 2011

It was one of Murphy’s laws at work in my personal life and the Indian economy in 2011: everything that could go wrong, went wrong. keeping my personal life aside (because I am not sure people wants to read that,even I am not sure I want to read my dairy again in my life )but speaking about Indian Economy,I am sure my clients and students with many of my self proclaimed economist friends (like me) would like to read. Ok let us see some of the economic events and then see some general events which are close to heart of the common man.
Shock market(Stock Market)Inflation, high interest rates, costly fuel, falling industrial output, serial scams, weak rupee, government indecision, the list could just go on.In one year stock market crashes more than 20%, almost every mutual fund is giving negative returns.Let us see some of the events which affected the market in year 2011.1. Union budget 2011Market responded positively as Finance minister's commitment to restrict fiscal deficit to 4.6%. many of the stocks were at 52 week high (looking at time span of one year from jan 2011 to dec 2011).thanks for increasing government expenditure delay in 3G auction and food security bill .The fiscal deficit of India is nowhere near 4.6%2.Gold BullSince childhood we firmly believed "high risk high return"but the Irony is that Gold is most liquid and risk free asset and returns for the year 2011 are 40%(more than any other asset class).It is work of economist to find out reason after thing happened.now if you an find it out that why gold is up by 40% then you are also "The economist"
3. continuous rate hike D.Subbarao, the person whom everyone must have criticized atleast once in a year,thanks to 3% rate hike in a year but even then it could not ease the inflation 4.American Debt What happens when the biggest country which is considered to be most safest struggles for taking more loan , any by taking more loan it becomes more risky, and when credit rating agency tells them that you are more risky now, the CEO have to resign, and we say it's democracy in America5.Europe Debt crisis What happens when some kid takes loan and hides it from our parents, simple yaar Dad have to pay it,but kid gets some punishment, same things are going in Europe , Angela Markel (mom of Europe) and Nicolus Sarkozy (Dad of Europe) trying to cover up the matter 6.IIP fall Industrial output of India has decreased due to all the above conditions prominent among them is less demand and high cost of borrowing7.Pledged Share sell off Share is also a type of asset,and any asset can be kept as guarantee, so as to take loan shares were pledged and then the share prises fell due to macro economic conditions, banks asked for more assets promoters could not give it, so banks sold all the shares this created panic in the market.
To close my economic event dairy I want to end with the saying by legendary investor Sir John Templeton "bull markets are born in pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die of euphoria"
Not let's come to General Events of 2011
if I go no telling then it will be 100's of pages , but to speak of some special here are some
1. The 2011 end times prediction made by American Christian radio host Harold Camping stated that the Rapture and Judgment Day would take place on May 21, 2011 and that the end of the world would take place five months later on October 21, 2011, but fortunately nothing happened like that now the doomsday is somewhere in 2012. Please wait till my next year dairy.
2. In 2011 many People including me won 1500000000000 Rs. from bill gates/AOL/Microsoft but never received the money.
3. if you send the SMS that Uninor is Pakistani company the respective service provider will give you 10 Rs talktime, which no one ever received .

4.THANKS TO YOU I have learned that my prayers only get answered if I forward an e-mail to seven of my friends and make a wish within five minutes.
5. Due to all these things whole India without even knowing what LOKPAL bill is started supporting it only by considering that it will reduce corruption.

6. facebook became a too of Viral Marketing and TV became a tool of social Marketing ,even facebook became tool of Publicity . here only I discovered( which is false) that Indira Gandhi is married to a Muslim.
There are many more things which took pace in 2011, like India won World cup, India lost its position in First 10 Capital markets by Market cap.
and the list goes on , sorry got to go ,have loads to share but then time is a constraint
will catch you next year. wish you a very happy new year

My take: No one should loose today.

Wow, what a great day in the History of Indian sub-continent. Now in the world cup only 3 teams are remaining.

In the wee hours of the day, I just happen to go through Economic times, it quoted " Unofficial National Holiday in India" True if you see the hype and Aura around the match, it's bound to increase the expectations from the players, from both the sides.

Both the players and Fans (along with politicians , diplomats, bidders and underworld ) are working hard to extract 100% from the match. This can be easily concluded from the events taking place from the last week.

Today , I will not get surprised if we see, less share trade volume on Stock exchanges. The TRP of this match will break all the records as advertising rates are inching towards north

From the critics point of view, it is sheer waste of almost 2-3 billion working hours for India and same applies for Pakistan (.4 billion working hours).

many optimist see the match as a step forward towards peace, I am not sure whether I agree with the statement. The argument is Cricket match is zero sum game and it's a knock out game. and probability of tie, is less than 1% ( from past experiences) and even less when all the variables of the game are considered.

My point here is , it's going to hurt sentiments of people of either country, if there is result of the match, As Cricket is religion in the sub continent, the emotions are attached, therefore the healthy competition gets converted into national evaluation and hate rate , and group dynamics compels individual integrity to remain dormant.Nature is also trying to Interrupt , and reduce the Einstien pain waves.

Please do not question, my patriotism , somewhere in my heart, I am inclined towards my country but I am more worried about the people's ability to digest the outcome of the cricket field war, where almost 1.5 billion people play the match with prayers and superstitions.

I am sure, today there will be free flow of adrenaline, with electrifying atmosphere. but the worry is , the dominance of emotions over individual integrity. or dominance of group think over conscience. Today no stone will remain unturned, but worry is , that no stone should break a glass.

so my take is , "no one should loose today".